Posts Tagged ‘troy murphy

04
Feb
09

Fantasy Conundrum

I’m going to write about fantasy basketball today for a few reasons:

1. – It’s fun to play and I don’t mind saying that I am dominating my league.

2. – The main source for this site is to serve as an outlet for me. I have more passionate Bulls fans in my life right now than I’ve had in the past. That change leads to my frustration over not being able to share my thoughts less frequently bubbling over into a blog post. However, I still don’t have any fantasy basketball friends or family members. Hence this post.

3. – I have a conundrum right now and I need your help.

Here’s what my roster looks like:

I can change my roster daily and don’t run out of eligible games. Therefore, one of the objectives is to never have a player with a game that night that I can’t fit anywhere on my active roster.

As you can see, I only have two players who qualify as SGs on my team currently. The Bucks’ Ramon Sessions is currently available and I want him, bad. He qualifies as a SG/PG, which makes him even more valuable since I could slide him in at several spots. He’s taken over for the injured Michael Redd, so he’ll finally be able to take the consistent production he’s provided all year and combine it with big, starter’s minutes.

I’m tempted, very tempted, to add him to my roster in place of Tyson Chandler. Chandler has been painfully inconsistent all year. On top of inconsistency, I drafted him far higher than I should have because I’ve been a fan since his Bulls days. That draft day mistake has kept me feeling bitter about him all season and looking for an excuse to get him off my team.

I’m further tempted by the fact that my league only has one position that is devoted solely to C. However, my roster features five players that qualify for that one spot. Logic would dictate dumping at least one of them, especially one that isn’t a C/PF, for an SG. See, PGs, SGs, SFs and PFs are more valuable that Cs because each can play in five different spots. If it’s a PG, he could play the PG, G, or any of the three UTILs. A C can only play four spots. I should lower my number of Cs, no?

The problem is that I drafted or acquired mostly outside shooting Cs, thinking that they add more. You get 3s, still get rebounds, often more points than back to the basket kind of guys. This strategy has helped me lead my league in points and assists, but has me sitting six out of ten in blocks, making that by far the weakest category I’m competing in. Now, can I afford to give up Tyson when I desperately need blocks?

I should mention that my league is head-to-head. The standings via category are mostly useful as a general idea of what I’m accomplishing week-to-week.

Here’s where I stand in each category:

FG% – 7 of 10 – I’ve simply conceded this category. Can’t win ’em all.
FT% – 4 of 10
3PM – 3 of 10
Reb – 2 of 10
Ast – 1 of 10
Stl – 1 of 10
Blks – 6 of 10
Pts – 2 of 10

Like I said, I’m conceding FG% because I’ve been consistently bad enough at it that I won’t win there. My team is mostly guards and long-range shooters. Too late to change that and I’m not going win the percentages that way. Plus, I’m doing well enough in most other areas to get over it.

So do I go for Sessions, who I know would help me, but in categories in which I’m already ranked in the top three? Or stick with the frustrating Chandler and be forced to swallow some unecesary DNPs?  On top of everything else, Chandler has been hurt lately and Sessions is one of the most added players in ESPN leagues in the recent past.  Will Chandler come back stronger than before?  Will someone else in my league jump on Sessions and make me regret my inaction for the rest of the season?  These are the pains and joys of fantasy basketball.

Then there’s always Lamar Odom, another candidate primed for a great production increase with Bynum going out. I could lose him instead?

I think writing this has convinced me to sit tight for the moment, but boy, Sessions is tempting, especially considering I just found out Andrew Bogut is out for two months . . .

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30
Jul
08

Deng signs, what to do about Gordon . . .

I told you I’d rant again!

Luol Deng signed a new contract with the Bulls that is reportedly worth $71 million over 6 years and could be worth $80 million with incentives. See below for all of the reportedlies.

I was talking to people yesterday about how I thought Deng and Gordon would either get something done soon or give up after seeing the contracts that Emeka Okafor, Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis just signed. They were all too high in my opinion, but definitely gave Gordon and Deng a leg to stand on in their negotiations.

I said yesterday:

Gordon and Deng may be whiney, but as long as other teams are committing to dumb contracts like this, they at least have an argument for $10 million a year.

Okafor – 13.7 ppg and 10.7 rpg in 33 mpg – 6 years at $12 million
Biedrins – 10.5 ppg and 9.8 rpg in 27.5 mpg – 6 years at $10.5 million
Ellis – 20.2 ppg and 3.9 apg in 31.9 mgp – 6 years at $11 million

Today:

Deng – 17.0 ppg and 6.3 rpg in 33.8 mpg – 6 years at $11.83 million and up to $13.33 with incentives

Gordon – 18.6 ppg and 3.1 apg in 31.8 mgp . . . ? The Bulls reportedly have only have $8 million left if they want to stay under the luxury tax

Keeping Deng for the long-term was vital to the team the Bulls are trying to build. He’s young, somewhat versatile, has the potential to keep getting better and is the perfect size and shape for his position. As Derrick Rose grows into the player he can and is supposed to become, he will need teammates that can grow along with him. This will be a long process and the Bulls need to think of it as semi-rebuilding as opposed to a tweaking of the team they already had. Keeping Deng was essential to this goal.

I believe that Ben Gordon could be a great fit with Rose because he’s a great outside shooter and that skill will be very helpful to someone who can distribute and get to the basket the way Rose can. However, Gordon isn’t quite as essential to (what I think should be) the Bulls plans because he is two years older than Deng and unfortunately simply too small to guard his own position. Rose will probably be able to guard a lot of 2s in the coming years, but you don’t want to have to ask him to do that.

It’s important to note that I’m only comparing Deng and Gordon’s necessity to the team relative to each other, not either of their value compared to all other players.

I would love for the Bulls to trade Larry Hughes for anybody with a contract that is 25% + $100,000 a year lower than his (the most allowed by the CBA for teams over the salary cap), but searching through salaries on hoopshype.com I was unable to find any ideal candidates. You’d need somebody relatively unwanted because Hughes is unwanted and maybe with more years left on his contract than the 2 Hughes has remaining. Troy Murphy would fit the bill as he makes about the exact right amount and is signed for one more year than Hughes, but I don’t see Larry Bird picking up a player like Hughes after all the trouble the Pacers have had with players’ characters. Maybe you could throw somebody else in, but then we’re just getting too hypothetical.

The point is, if you could make a trade like one for Murphy, you’d free up about $2.7 million more in the first year of the trade that could be offered to Ben Gordon while still staying under the luxury tax. Plus, you’d free up playing time by reducing the number of guards on the roster. Ben could then be offered a contract averaging $10.7 million, though that would be a bit too high. What I would do is offer him something averaging just above what they offered last year. This strategy is how they got Deng. Last year they offered Deng an $11.5 million average and this year it’s $11.83. That’s not a significant increase, but it allows the player to save face by improving his stock instead of hurting it.

Anyway, I don’t see it happening. I predict Gordon is traded for less than he’s worth. No sign-and-trade is likely, in my opinion, because other teams won’t want to pay him over $10 million a year either. Therefore, he gets traded to a team who is willing to have him for only one year because they didn’t have to give up much to get him. That “not much” is what the Bulls will likely end up with. I don’t see them going into the season with 5 guards who are all worthy of significant tic. That won’t happen. Gordon is the most likely to go because he’s only guaranteed for one more year vs. Thabo’s less expensive two or Hinrich’s decreasingly expensive 4. And nobody wants Hughes.

Reports on Deng’s deal as of Wednesday morning:




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